6A and 5A playoff predictions- Oregon

(7-3) West Salem @ #2 Lake Oswego (10-0)

Point Spread: LO -17 1/2

Prediction: Lake Oswego 37 West Salem 19

Analysis: LO is determined to beat people as they have a unique focus about them. Steven Long has gone for over 1500 yards and 26 touchdowns in a season to remember. The fact that he is not conference player of the year is ridiculous taking nothing away from Tommy Knecht. He could be the state player of the Year. The LO Defense is experienced with maybe the best linebacking group in the state (Walen Sr., Taylor Sr., Lomax Jr.). The line has played outstanding and has been the difference maker in a year when that was in question.
West Salem, lead by one of the Northwest’s top coaches in Shawn Stanley will be trying to build on a year filled with ups and downs. The Titan line is legit (Deeks, Kreitzberg, Sommer) but the offense has sputtered at times. Do everything athlete Brenden Shaffer has played QB off and on, but now will be the guy with Andy Siemens going down for the year.


(8-2) #7 Roseburg @ #4 South Medford (9-1)

Point Spread: S.Medford -7 1/2

Prediction: S.Medford 34 Roseburg 21

Analysis: The battle that took place between the two earlier in the season was one of the best games of the year, as seen on NEI TV. Jack Singler has been dominant all year putting up some of the top #S in the state ( 29 Tds/ 7 Ints 2085 reg season passing yds) . Matt Retzlaff is one of the best overall players in the state and continues to be one of the state leaders in Ints and Tds. He lead the state in touchdown receptions (14). Roseburg will bring its running attack lead by Javier Mandera who has gone off as of late with a 4 Td game a 200+ yard performance.


(6-4) #10 Southridge @ #3 Tigard (10-0)

Point Spread: Tigard – 5

Prediction: Tigard 28 Southridge 26

Analysis: This game could go either way. Southridge hasn’t allowed a point in 8 quarters and their defense has been on lock down mode lead by 6-8 250 pound Sean McGill. He has come into his own and become one of the top defensive players in the state. It looks like the return of recently named first team all league sophomore running back Devin Martinez who has taken the Metro by storm. Reza Aleaziz is one of the best junior quarterbacks in the state and his cast of receivers is sick. Three underclassmen that are all considered top tier kids for their class. (Justin Calo- League leader in multiple categories, Kevin McClean- All league since soph year, and Jordan Morgan- one of the top sophomores in Oregon).
Tigard is the real deal and have blasted teams all year but the lack of competition may hurt. They beat Southridge 49-41 in the league opener and also ousted #9 Grant and Tualatin. They have maybe the top running foursome anywhere in the Northwest with three juniors and a sophomore (Be Wick, Z.Floyd, Greene, Rasmussen- So). Jeremy Moore 6-1 270 crushed people all year from his D Tackle spot earning Defensive Player of the Year Honors for the Conference. The Tigers have athletes everywhere and a senior dominated line, you can bet this game will be within a Td. The rain favors Tigard, it will be crazy.


(7-3) Tualatin @ #6 Jesuit (7-3)

Point Spread : Jesuit -17

Prediction: Jesuit 35 Tualatin 17

Analysis: AJ Glass has gone off and Adam Winterling can dominate a football game if you get him the ball. Both were 1st team all league kids with Glass running for 1600 yards and 22 Tds. The Crusaders love this time of year especially when healthy. Rothstein is the best running QB in the state along with Maximo Espitia Jr. They average 6-5 270 across the board (Rich, Kirkland, Griffin, Baldochhi, Mori) so they are happy to use the late November weather to their advantage. They did give up far too many points against a McMinnville team that had no business dropping 34.
Tualatin will have a tough time hanging with this group unless they can create some havoc up front. Jesuit will run at them and try to do what Tigard did earlier in the year in the 35-7 loss. Brady Watts is the best overall player on the T Wolves roster and will need to play huge. 1st team all league athlete Nathan Seyumatsu has been outstanding, and QB/DB Travis Johnson is super quick and can break a game open with his wheels if you are not careful.


(4-7) David Douglas @ Oregon City (7-4)

Point Spread: OC -12 1/2

Prediction: Oregon City 30 David Douglas 14

Analysis: In one of the most surprising games I have ever seen, the Pioneers will go from a play in game to a potential Quarterfinal match up. David Douglas came away with one of the biggest upsets we have seen in some time with a win over #8 West Linn. DD’s MMarcel Frazier has been lights out and is a legit D1 kid with three quality offers (Wash St, Idaho, PSU). The Scots have gotten healthy at the right time.
OC has had a big come back year lead by the play of QB Landon Martinez and WR Trevor Dye. Martinez ranks 3rd in the state in passing yards (2095) with a 25/3 Td to INT ratio while Dye is tied for 2nd in receiving Tds with (13). RB Louis Wolf has looked in prime form the last couple weeks scoring multiple Tds in last weeks playoff win over Crater. This will be their 3rd striaght home game where the community comes out in force. Coach Strasser is doing great things at OC.



(7-3) Thurston @ #5 Central Catholic (8-2)

Point Spread: CC – 8

Prediction: Central Catholic 31 Thurston 24

Analysis: Trevor Westover went off for the Colts last week accounting for 7 Tds (1 kick return 90 yds) against defending state champion Aloha. Westover was a first team all league selection and has been one of most dominate players in the state of Oregon. Thurston has the state’s leading passer in 5-10 Chad Olson who is not afraid to air it out. Devin Chappell is an outstanding athlete that was a first team all league kid on both sides of the ball as a junior. The Colts will have to have there A game like last week.
Central Catholic needs to show that they can break the Mt Hood Conference Jiinx and get past the quarterfinals. With this win they will set themselves up with a very winnable match up against OC/DD. Dallin Leavitt is one of the state leaders in Ints (6) and Oregon commit Alex Balducci has had a monster year. The CC defensive lineup looks like a college roster. If they are focused there is no reason not to shut down both opponents over the next two weeks. Xavier Griggs, Beau Duronslet and Jacob Nall 2010 (Conference player of the year) are all D1 kids.


(6-4) Canby @ #9 Grant (8-2)

Point Spread: Grant -2

Prediction: Canby 27 Grant 23

Analysis: Another game that could go either way. Grant had a tough time against Grants Pass last week which was surprising. They pulled off the 40-32 win, but left questions. Canby is on fire behind legs of Sam Doman and a variety of other ball carriers. Kyle Bartram has played stand out D as the Cougars have recovered from a brutal non league schedule that saw them play the toughest schedule of any team other then Lake Oswego. They have outscored their last 2 opponents 77-14 (Lakeridge 41-0, Westview 36-14).
Grant has big names and three D1 commits to PSU (D.Halverson, J.Graves, P.Penn) . Penn has had an outstanding year both throwing and running and Halverson is your ultimate leader with a Ray Lewis type mentality. The X factor could be junior Nathan Halverson who is finally healthy. He could be the teams most talented overall player and he should be seeing the ball often.


(6-4) Lincoln @ #1 Sheldon (10-0)

Point Spread: Sheldon -41

Prediction: Sheldon 54 Lincoln 12

Analysis: This is no disrespect to Lincoln, but Sheldon is that good. They will move up and down the field all night long like they have done to every opponent thus far. Sheldon is potentially one of the three greatest teams Oregon has ever had and they could solidify that with an impressive state title run. Dillon Miller is the #1 ranked QB in the state and some school will get a steal. His 30 Tds/ 3 Int ratio is one of the most ridiculous stats in Oregon, and his 2680 yards passing and 69 % com pct put him up there with some of the top QB’s ever in the state..
Connor Strahm could be the state’s other top player as he defines the word clutch; 18 total touchdowns and 5 Interceptions put him atop all of the lists state wide. San McCaskill and Dawson Housley have multiple D1 offers and have pitched shut outs like a baseball team allowing the fewest points in class 6A. Both are state player of the year candidates. The Irish won’t be challenged until a possible Semi Final matchup with Central Catholic.
Koleman Vance is the real deal for Lincoln as he does whatever you need him to do. Catch, Run, pass the kid can play but you can bet that the Irish will have multiple hats in his chest all night. The speed and tenacity of the Irish D is something you don’t see often. Michael Ferguson is another kid that can change a game with his speed and quicks, and the cat has been let out of the bag with freshman sensation Lopeti Aisea terrorizing opponents. His highlight film requires multiple views as every coach in the country will be visiting Portland soon. Lopeti will team with his brother Usaia to do whatever they can to stop Sheldon.



(8-2) Ashland @ #2 Sherwood (11-0)

Point Spread: Sherwood -29

Prediction: Sherwood 48 Ashland 14

Analysis: There are only a couple 5a teams that can hang with Sherwood and Ashland is not one of them The Grizzlies got a big win last week against a Silverton team that had some big wins on the year (Corvallis, Lebanon). The Grizzlies are lead by sophomore QB who Danial White who be their leader for years to come.
The Bowmen will expose the Ashland D early with a mixture of speed and power. RB Paul Dodson earned offensive player of the year honors, while LB Travis Dyer racked up defensive honors with Brett Bafaro. On the line the lone returning starter from last years state championship team, Zane Groves (6-1 270 Sr) was lineman of the year. A clean sweep for Sherwood in the NWOC. They are one of the top teams at any level state wide, and their win over Skyview early in the year still has people talking as the Storm are a 4a title contender in Washington. This shouldn’t be close



(8-2) Bend @ #5 West Albany (9-2)

Point Spread: West Albany -3

Prediction: West Albany 30 Bend 29

Analysis: This could be a very exciting game as Bend looks back to its early season form with the return of one of the leagues best athletes in Gavin Gerdes 616 yds, 8 Tds.. (6-1 195 Sr. RB/DL). The combination of him and Duke Degaetano (653 yds, 9 Tds) gives them a solid rushing attack while JC Grim (904 rec yds, 12 Tds 17 ypc, 5 Int’s) is one of Oregon’s top overall players. After a few down weeks they blasted Liberty 48-8 letting everyone know they were back.
West Albany features the state’s leading rusher in sophomore Jake LaCoste (1876 yds, 21 Tds) who set the state single game rushing record against Silverton going for 508 on the ground. The Bulldogs won the very tough Mid Willamette Conference and have a winning tradition and home field advantage. LaCoste has been off the charts good and looks to be following in his brothers foot steps, as he finished as the State’s third all time leading rusher (Anthony LaCoste). I would not want to play Bend right now, as it should be a very close ball game.


(8-3) #7 Lebanon @ #3 Mt View (9-1)

Point Spread: Mt. View – 6

Prediiction: Mt View 31 Lebanon 22

Analysis: The senior dominated Cougars are playing their best ball of the season and have everybody healthy. Offensive Player of the Year Jacob Hollister has been killing it on both sides. Offensively he has a 23 Td/ 1 Int ratio and on D he is one of the state leaders in Int’s with (5). His receiving core is outsanding and can compete with anybody. (Cody Hollister 6-3 195 Sr, John Carroll 6-4 190 Jr) give them a combined 1170 receiving yards and 21 Td receptions while playing a half in most games due to blow outs.
Mt View is 20-2 in the last two seasons with both losses coming to Sherwood, but they have played some really bad teams this year so it will be good to see someone like Lebanon. The Warriors return Conference player of the year Ben Duerr (1029 rush yds, 7 Tds) from 2010, a running QB that is one of the better DB’s in the state. RB/DB Garrett Urrutia has gone off as well (1068 yards, 18 Tds) and the Warriors have a tough defense that can present problems. They have beaten #4 Wilsonville (37-29) and #5 West Albany (13-0) this season.


9-2) #4 Wilsonville @ #1 Marist (10-0)

Point Spread: Marist -4

Prediction: Marist 35 Wilsonville 31

Analysis: This game could go either way as Marist has yet to play a competitive team since week 1. The Spartans are extremely talented with an offense that can put up 50 points a night. Austin Baird Jr (18 Tds), Taylor Walcott Sr (18 Tds), and Josh Paiement Sr (11 Tds) have disposed of opponents in quick fashion accounting for a combined 47 Touchdowns. The Wildcats will give them their stiffest test yet as Tanner Shipley Jr, Nick Highbereger Jr, and last years state leader in picks Jayden Cooper Sr (9) are one of the top trios in the state in the defensive backkfield.
Wilsonville’s Tanner Shipley has jumped up the charts over the last few weeks breaking the schools single game rushing record twice with (269,284) yard performances. Shipley has rushed for 1151 yds and 16 Tds and has started less than half the year. He has looked like a man amongst boys and is only a junior.
Marist is one of the best overall teams in the state, and Wilsonville is one of the hottest. It will be very interesting to see the game film on NEI when all is said and done.